美國一月非農就業報告新增職位13萬，失業率降至4.3%，多項指標同步向好，構成一幅近乎完美的勞動市場全景圖。不過，市場即時反應耐人尋味，股市先升後回，債息攀升，交易員調低減息押注。對習慣「央行放水」的短線交易者而言，強勁數據反變成「壞消息」。
上述矛盾情況可以理解，卻不值得長線投資者跟從。一份紮實的就業報告，對美股長遠健康的意義，遠比「減息預期降溫」來得深刻。
一、企業盈利核心動能來自經濟實體，而來自非貨幣政策。 過去市場屢陷錯覺：只要減息，股市便能續升，令股票價值寄託在資金成本，而非企業創造現金流能力。股市終極估值基礎始終是盈利，盈利源頭是消費者購買力與商業活動，兩者皆賴穩健就業。一月非農最可貴之處，在於印證美國經濟並非「人工呼吸」，而是具備內生增長能力。更多人就業、工資上升，企業收入更穩固，這才是股價長期向上的磐石。
長線資金看重基本面
二、「好數據、壞市場」通常短暫，長線資金更看重基本面向好。 2023至2024年間，每次就業超預期後股市往往短暫受壓，但三個月後標指平均錄得正回報。經濟衰退才是股市最大敵人，非通脹或高利率。一月失業率不升反跌，勞動參與率穩定，意味企業仍在擴充人手，而非裁員自保。這與零售放緩形成對比——若合併解讀，更合理推論是消費者在高物價下調整開支，而非購買力崩潰。這類「軟著陸」訊號，對長達七年的擴張周期是難得利好。
三、聯儲局不必急於減息，恰恰反映金融體系未見結構性風險。市場對減息的執念，源於對流動性枯竭的恐懼。然而，健康就業意味聯儲局毋須以「非對稱減息」救經濟，這本身是好消息。2008及2020年大幅減息皆由危機驅動，非正常周期調節。若此刻因經濟放緩而急轉彎，反而敲響衰退警鐘。如今非農讓決策者擁有政策迴旋空間，既可觀察通脹，亦不必憂慮就業急挫。這種政策自主權，比單純減息更利於資本市場長期穩定。
就業數據佳助撐起估值
四、強勁就業有助吸引資本持續流入美國，支撐股市估值。 國際投資者配置資產時，除了比較利率，更看重經濟基本面。一月就業報告向全球傳遞清晰信號：美國勞動市場仍領先歐洲、日本及其他發達經濟體。美元資產相對吸引力不減，外資不會因一兩次減息落空而大舉撤離。尤其在地緣緊張、歐洲乏力的背景下，美股的「安全邊際」來自實體經濟穩健，而非央行寬鬆。
五、市場情緒與基本面之間存在時間差，長線投資者正是利用此落差創造回報。 週二零售偏軟、週五就業強勁，市場短線選擇聚焦前者而忽略後者，反映交易員仍在消化複雜訊息，但對三至五年長線資金非農只得一個結論，美國經濟韌性遠超預期，企業盈利下修風險降低，股市長期走勢始與盈利同步。
一月就業數據並非完美， 13萬新增職位非歷史頂峰，勞動參與率未見突破，但報告意義在於掃走過去數月「經濟將硬著陸」的悲觀看法，重建對實體經濟信心。減息或許姍姍來遲，企業盈利能見度卻在提高。對真正的長線投資者來講，都比任何貨幣政策都更珍貴。
Much better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll improve macro-outlook although not helping US stock tonight
US Non-Farm Payroll report surprised the market on the strength of the US job market with 130,000 new jobs and an unexpected decline of unemployment rate to 4.3% in January from 4.4% last month. In addition, there are favourable signs in underemployment rate, hour earnings, private payroll, as well as an in-line adjustment of payroll benchmarks.
Although 130,000 is not super high in long-term history, it is still the best month in over a year and shows that the US job market and economy is better than expected and feared. While all three US indexes reversed earlier gains to modest drop amid concern on lower chance of rate cut & higher bond yields, this is good news for US economy and market. Weak retail sales Tuesday night might still be hurting market sentiment in the near term but US equity & fixed-income market outlook improve meaningfully upon this strong employment number.
The initial market reaction – stocks pulling back on diminished hopes for rate cuts – is a classic case of traders focusing on the near-term narrative rather than the long-term fundamentals. While it is true that a resilient job market reduces the Federal Reserve’s urgency to ease policy, investors should distinguish between what drives markets over days versus what drives them over years. In the long run, stock prices follow corporate earnings, and corporate earnings follow the health of the economy. A robust labour market is the bedrock of durable earnings growth.
January’s payroll number, coupled with a falling unemployment rate and rising hourly earnings, points to an economy that continues to expand at a healthy clip. Consumers are employed, incomes are rising, and spending power remains intact. This directly translates into stronger top-line revenues for US corporations, particularly in consumer discretionary, technology, and industrial sectors. Unlike temporary boosts from monetary stimulus, which can create artificial highs and painful hangovers, growth driven by genuine labour demand is self-sustaining. It encourages capital investment, fosters innovation, and attracts global capital into US assets.
Moreover, the relationship between interest rates and stock valuations is not linear. While higher bond yields can compress valuation multiples in the short term, they reflect a stronger nominal growth environment. For long-term investors, the worst outcome is not higher rates – it is recession. Jobs report this solid materially lowers the probability of a near-term contraction. It suggests that the “soft landing” narrative, far from being wishful thinking, is playing out in real data. Historically, bull markets have endured tightening cycles when earnings growth has been sufficient to offset higher discount rates. The current environment is even better as earnings grow even better with slowly easing rate.
It is also worth noting that the Fed itself has signalled a data-dependent approach. Strong job creation gives the central bank breathing room to observe how previous policy easings filters through the economy. It reduces the risk of policy mistake, while also making any future rate cuts more deliberate and therefore more credible. When the Fed does eventually cut, it will likely be from a position of economic strength, not crisis. That is a fundamentally healthier backdrop for equity markets than cuts born of desperation.
From a sector perspective, the breadth of improvement in the jobs report is particularly encouraging. Revisions to prior months, stable labour force participation, and declining underemployment all suggest that the quality of job growth is improving. This supports a broadening of market leadership beyond a handful of mega-cap names. Cyclical sectors, small caps, and even regional banks stand to benefit from a sustained expansion. As confidence in the economic outlook firms, valuation dispersion may narrow and more segments of the market can participate in the upside.
