Google母公司Alphabet，剛公佈2025年第四季績強勁，隨即拋出震撼彈：預告2026年資本支出將累計達約1800億美元，投資者擔憂巨額支出將嚴重侵蝕短期利潤與現金流，Alphabet股價與納指應聲下跌，但此焦慮過度聚焦季度指標，忽略背後戰略遠見。這項史無前例的投資，為Google確保未來主導地位訂下戰略決心，鞏固長期競爭力、驅動變革性成長，最終為股東創造更大價值。
此次資本支出大增核心邏輯，在建基於確立「基礎設施是AI時代最終競爭護城河」。在生成式AI競賽中，領導地位取決能否掌握龐大頂尖算力資源。Alphabet正憑藉由搜尋引擎業務支撐強勁資產負債表，打造全球最先進、規模最大的AI優化資料中心網絡，涉及大規模部署新一代TPU、GPU及能源與網路基建。
巨額資本開支助建長期優勢
透過從晶片到資料中心的垂直整合，Google已牢牢掌控自身命運，不單能避免租用第三方雲端容量帶來的瓶頸，包括成本上揚與資源稀缺等問題，更築起難以撼動的長期優勢，例如更低的AI推論成本、無人能及的模型訓練速度與規模，以及競爭對手無法跟上的創新節奏。
這座頂級基礎設施將直接轉化為更卓越的產品與嶄新的收入來源，能為搜尋、Workspace、YouTube等核心服務注入深度AI能力，更值得關注是廣告業務外，此投資將令Google Cloud變得更強大、更高效的AI平台，搶佔市場引擎，同時透過企業API，將前端AI模型基礎變得扎實，有望在藥物發現、自主系統等領域有突破性進展。
市場對Alphabet未來12至18個月利潤率感到擔心，或將錯過此公司的長線動聽的故事，尤其是回顧往績，從網絡到行動革命的每次科技轉移，都需經歷投資期令盈利壓縮，但要留意是有能力為行業定義才是最終時代大贏家。Google目前正處此關鍵時刻。
利好AI硬體生態
一旦超大規模投資完成，Alphabet將擁有業界龍頭的資產基礎，能全方位提供AI服務，其實力無可匹敵，隨着雲端業務加快發展，新型AI訂閱制營收湧現，以及搜尋核心優勢持續鞏固，市場情緒預計將從懷疑轉為認同。
更重要是，Google豪賭為整個AI硬體生態系統注入了強心針，此計畫對輝達、博通、AMD等半導體巨頭，甚至是網路、記憶體、電力設備供應商都是一個歷史性的需求時刻，有力掃走市場對「AI寒冬」的疑慮，亦表明全球AI基目前才剛進入高潮，也鼓勵供應鏈各環節持續加大投資。隨着資金流入，上游供應商收入與利潤將受益，推動股價向上，最終整個產業形成互相受惠
整體來講，Alphabet推出的1800億美元藍圖，難免利潤短期受到一定的「陣痛」，但是為長期戰略作準備，透過財務鎖定永久優勢，市場最終會重新評估其價值，這場競逐不僅關乎一家公司的未來，也是為整個AI硬體時代帶來創新與增長的動力。
Google’s $180 Billion Bet: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term AI Dominance
Alphabet’s strong Q4 2025 earnings were quickly overshadowed by a staggering announcement: a capital expenditure forecast aiming for roughly $180 billion by 2026. The market’s immediate reaction was a sell-off, with Google’s stock and the NASDAQ falling as investors feared crushing pressure on near-term margins and cash flow. While this anxiety is understandable, it focuses myopically on quarterly metrics. This historic investment is a strategically decisive move to secure Google’s future. It will solidify long-term competitiveness, fuel transformative business growth, ultimately reward shareholders, and act as a catalyst for the broader AI hardware sector.
This capex surge is fundamentally a bet on “infrastructure as the ultimate competitive moat.” In the generative AI era, leadership is dictated by access to vast, cutting-edge compute capacity. Google is leveraging its unparalleled balance sheet – fortified by its cash-generating Search engine – to build the world’s most advanced and expansive network of AI-optimized data centres. This involves massive deployment of next-generation Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), GPUs, and the supporting energy and networking infrastructure. By owning this stack, Google controls its destiny. It avoids the bottlenecks, rising costs, and scarcity of renting third-party cloud capacity. This self-reliance creates an impregnable advantage: lower long-term AI inference costs, unmatched speed and scale for model training, and the ability to innovate at a pace competitors cannot match.
This infrastructure directly enables “superior products and unlocks new revenue horizons.” The immediate benefit is supercharging core services like Search, Workspace, and YouTube with deeper AI. The larger opportunity lies beyond advertising. This investment is the engine for Google Cloud to compete more aggressively by offering the most powerful and efficient AI platform. It is the foundation for monetizing frontier models via enterprise APIs and for pioneering breakthroughs in areas like drug discovery and autonomous systems. By vertically integrating from silicon (TPU) to datacentre, Google optimizes for performance and cost, creating a flywheel where better infrastructure enables better AI services, which attracts more users and data, fueling further advances.
The market’s margin concerns are valid for the next 12–18 months but miss the long-term narrative. Every major tech shift – from internet to mobile – required heavy investment that temporarily pressured profitability, only to create ultimate winners. Google is in that pivotal investment phase. Once this hyperscale buildout moderates, the company will possess a fully-depreciated, industry-leading asset base capable of delivering AI services at unbeatable unit economics. This sets the stage for “significant margin expansion and cash flow acceleration later this decade.” As evidence emerge – through accelerated Cloud growth, new AI subscription revenues, and sustained search dominance – market scepticism will shift to appreciation. The stock will re-rate to reflect Google’s evolution from an “advertising company” to an “AI infrastructure and solutions powerhouse,” commanding a higher valuation premium.
