美股短線波動長揸優質股考耐性

SK海力士、ASML公佈業績優於預期，營收及訂單展望亦上調，加上三星與台積電之前公布業績標青，以及AI中心需求激增，導致記憶體晶片短缺新聞不斷湧現，刺激半導體與AI產業情緒。2026年首四週，台積電、超微、ASML、美光、Sandisk等晶片股，截至1月28日止，在1月分別上漲約15%、20%、30%、45% 及100%。

標指隔晚首次推升至7,000點大關，納指逼近23,900點，距離歷史高點僅0.5%，上述指數與關鍵晶片股，可能需震盪數日才能突破重要阻力，但似在蓄勢待發創新高。一旦突破重要關口，市場樂觀情緒有望進一步升溫，推動新一波上漲行情。

晶片股升幅與金融史泡沫仍有距離

與2023年牛市相比，當時步伐較平穩，2025年增長速度已較前兩年明顯放慢，此輪漲勢始終受制多個因素限制大市表現，尤其對AI的質疑，包括投資者擔心AI題材已泡沫化（儘管事實並非如此）。因此，即使目背景看似與典型晶片股強勁末段爆升行情，但實際上升幅速度可能遠不及金融史上其他同類時期。

目前AI革命的重重疑慮，可能持續壓抑納指與AI科技股升勢。美國中期選舉前九個月，華府在國內外政策上的極度不確定性，亦可能不時為市場降溫。另一方面，格陵蘭、加拿大、伊朗、加沙與烏克蘭等地緣政治議題，仍可能偶發性爆發。

儘管存在美國宏觀經濟與盈利穩健增長、以及趨向寬鬆貨幣政策週期、財政刺激等有利背景，在極端政策不確定性下，投資信心難全面樂觀，美國市場震盪可能加劇。簡言之，儘管典型晶片所需條件與背景下，足以推動全球股指衝向極致樂觀的狀態，但不確定性可使「好友」攻勢受阻或放緩。

正如執筆時(1月29日)與過往許多交易日（或月份），突如其來的非常事件拖累下，令股市反覆回吐。標普500與納指在開市兩小時後，大部分升幅已經被抹去，目前只餘下約0.04%及0.15%的日內微幅升幅。

美股大方向趨升未變

不過，我仍對整體市場前景保持非常樂觀，但亦必須承認，前所未有的政策不確定性及市場對人工智能的懷疑情緒，可能令原本應出現的急升行情變得平緩，一旦出現此情況，反而是一個更健康的發展，只是對尋求急升及高回報的投資者，或許會有點失望。

換句話說，市場需要更多時間和耐性，去走出一個起伏不安，但整體趨勢向上格局未變，應保持長線視野，不要受短期波動動搖持有優質的增長股。

AI chip sector has a strong January but the uptrend might be slowed by AI scepticism & extreme policy uncertainties

Strong earnings beating forecast & higher guidance on revenue & order book from major semiconductor companies including SK Hynix & ASML today, and Samsung & TSMC last few weeks as well as overwhelming news on memory chip shortage due to rampant demand growth from AI datacentre boost sentiment of semiconductor and AI sectors. So far in the first 4 weeks of 2026, chip stocks like TSMC, AMD, ASML, MU, & SNDK are up roughly 15%, 20%, 30%, 45%, & 100% in 28 calendar days.

S&P500 index is pushed to new record high of almost 7,000 tonight when NASDAQ is within 0.5% of breaking new all-time-high at around 23,900 points. Although these indexes and key chip stocks may need to consolidate a few more days before breaking these major resistance levels, they are poised to break new highs. Once they break out of these major thresholds, optimism & bullishness may heat up further to see a new leg of uptrend.

The 3-year bull market starting from 2023 has been relatively gradual and 2025 growth is certainly decelerating from the prior 2 years. This uptrend has been relatively constrained by a ton of worries especially on AI scepticism as many investors fear that AI theme is already at bubble levels although it is not the case. So, although the current backdrop sounds like a typical strong and final-stage ‘melt-up’ of chip stocks, it may not melt up nearly as fast as the other ones in financial history.

Heavy doubts and scepticism on the current AI revolution may continue to keep a lid on NASDAQ and AI tech stock rally. Exceedingly high policy uncertainties within US economy and internationally from Washington 9 months before a tight mid-term election also could cool the market off from time to time. Ongoing geopolitical issues on Greenland, Canada, Iran, Gaza, & Ukraine could erupt occasionally.

So, despite favourable backdrop such as decent US macro & earnings growth, a very slow but easing monetary policy cycle, & fiscal stimulus, the US market may be choppier and any stock market gains could be slower as it is hard for investment confidence to reach highly & fully bullish under such type of extreme policy uncertainties. In short, although the needed ingredients and background for a typical chip-stocks melt-up are ready to push global stock indexes to maximum optimism and overshoot to the upside, these unusually high uncertainties might pull back or slow the bull from fully steaming ahead.

Like tonight and many other trading days or months, unprecedented events pop up here and there abruptly and pull stock indexes back repeatedly. After only 2 hours, most gains in S&P500 & NASDAQ fizzles out to tiny 0.04% & 0.15% intra-day gains now.

Rest assured that I am highly positive about market outlook but just acknowledging the unprecedented policy uncertainties and AI scepticism might slow down the market from a supposedly melt-up to a more gradual uptrend. If that happens, it is probably a heathier scenario than a big rapid jump but investors looking for sharp and huge gains might be disappointed. Instead, the market needs to be more patient to see this uptrend continue its very rocky back-and-forth chaotic uptrend. Keep your view on the long-term and try not to let the market rock you out of your quality growth stocks.