特朗普大肆鼓吹「掌控」格陵蘭，再次搬出關稅作武器。除了自2月1日起對8個歐洲國家加徵10%關稅（若美國未能完全掌控格陵蘭將於6月1日提升至25%）外，美國總統更威脅若法國總統馬克龍，若拒絕加入加薩「和平委員會」，將對法國葡萄酒徵收200%關稅。至於歐盟正準備各種報復措施，並進一步與美國保持距離。
全球金融市場因這場經濟戰爭、北約可能被削弱，甚至出現解體風險，拖累全球大市表現，雖然美股週一休市，歐洲市場卻普遍下跌1%，顯示特朗普為奪取格陵蘭島的行動是認真。雖然實體軍事衝突風險低，但經濟戰風險卻明顯正在升溫。
因此，除了美股今日(星期二)盤前期貨下跌約1.2%至1.5%，歐洲股市昨晚也下跌約1%，預料今晚美歐股市或再度下挫。美國10年期國債殖息率升至4.27%，明顯突破4.25%關口。市場擔心國際對美債需求進一步下滑，至於美元指數從上週四高位99.4，略微回落至今日的98.9，雖則跌幅有限，但表現仍優於美債與美股，若局勢持續拖長，美元也可能轉弱。
亞洲股市同樣受拖累，日本日經225指數兩日下跌近千點，恒指接近兩個交易日下滑約400點，本周除台灣外，幾乎所有亞洲市場都出現明顯跌幅。全球債市殖息率亦隨美債上升，但幅度相對溫和。滙市相對平靜，美元僅小幅走低。
避險資產如黃金與白銀等貴金屬強勢上漲並創下新高，其中黃金大漲2.8%至每盎司4,724美元，白銀則急升6.3%至94.07美元。近期反彈的加密貨幣則被視為風險資產而大幅回調，當中比特幣下跌超過2,000美元至91,066美元，但仍維持在90,000關口之上。
格陵蘭事件不利風險資產
未來數日，「格陵蘭事件」將主導市場情緒走向，可能對包括股票與加密貨幣在內風險資產造成壓力，貴金屬強勢則可能支撐大宗商品價格。不過債券價格或將受壓，使殖息率維持在高位，對市場情緒不利。目前全球市場波動雖明顯，但跌幅尚稱溫和，與2025年4月2日出現恐慌性拋售相比仍有距離。然而，若未來幾天華盛頓或達沃斯經濟論壇傳出更強硬言辭，恐怕會加劇市場恐懼，進一步壓低美股及美債。
從長遠來看，若美國能以購買或租賃方式，取得一定程度格陵蘭「控制權」，以確保其「安全」，對經濟或軍事衝突恐懼有望下降，全球資產價格或有望恢復至正常水平。不過，此過程可能需要數日甚至更久，尤其是股市此次跌幅較去年四月輕，暫時不足以迫使特朗普讓步。
此外，歐洲回應也將起關鍵作用。如果歐盟選擇強硬應對、以高額關稅和其他反制措施報復美國，談判過程可能被拖長，市場將持續低迷兼加劇波動。雖然此情況有助歐盟維護自身利益，但投資者將需面對更長時間高波動與回調。若歐盟反應較冷靜、報復措施有限，市場情緒或能更快恢復。
無論如何，短期內包括今晚及本周剩下時間，全球金融市場仍將出現大規模震盪及回落，投資者應冷靜觀察，避免在恐慌中作出重大投資組合決策，若美股在開盤後能顯著收窄跌幅，投資者可考慮有策略地提高現金部位、降低風險。
Trump’s tariff threats to Europe on Greenland takeover will keep global financial market very volatile this week or longer
Trump drums up the rhetoric to ‘Control’ Greenland and unleashes his favourite tariff weapon again. Besides the 10% tariff on Feb 1st to 8 European countries that will be raised to 25% on June 1st if US has not got complete control on Greenland, the US President also threats a 200% tariff on French wines if French President Macron refuse to join his ‘Board of Peace’ on Gaza. European Union is preparing various kind of retaliations and is tilting further away from US.
Global financial market is clearly distorted by this economic warfare and potential weakening or even the unthinkable breakup of NATO. While US stock market is closed on Monday, European markets generally are down 1% on the first trading day after this surprising tariff threats showing how serious is Trump on getting Greenland. Although this cut the risk of physical military confrontation but the risk of economic war is clearly escalating.
As a result, besides the 1.2%-1.5% drop in pre-market futures of US stock market today and the 1% drop in European market last night which may repeat again tonight along with US indices, 10-year US government bond yield rose to 4.27%, well above the 4.25% threshold as the market worries that international demand on US Treasury would drop further and clearly outweigh the safe-haven status of US government bond. US Dollar Index declines slightly from as high as 99.4 last Thursday to 98.9 today; the drop so far has been limited and much better than US stock & US bond but it can deteriorate if this drags out longer.
