隨着2025年僅剩三天結束，所有華爾街策略師均已提交或更新了對標普500指數2026年底的目標預測。據CNBC於12月19日調查，所有14位主要策略師都預測標普500指數明年將上升，但漲幅不一，範圍介乎7100點至8100點之間，意味較上週五收市價升2.4%至16.9%。平均目標與中位數目標分別為7629點和7650點，較12月26日收市價6929點潛在上升空間為10%與10.4%。
儘管10%的預期漲幅僅約等同標普長期平均複合增長率，但考慮到該指數在2023至2025年連續三年實現雙位數回報（累計漲幅約78%），該預測仍屬理想水平。當然若將統計區間延伸至下跌的2022年，過去四年標指總回報率為45%，即年均10%升幅，與該指數自1926年非正式成立後，9至10%的長期複合增長軌跡基本吻合。
華爾街策略師作風一向保守
華爾街策略師向來偏向保守，目標往往從安全基數出發，之後會按市況再逐步上調。基於此特質，目前10%升幅已屬相當樂觀，因往年在新年開始前，策略師的預測鮮少突破此門檻。事實上，十二個月前多數機構對2025年的漲幅預測低於10%，而截至12月26日實際漲幅已達17.8%。因此2026年華爾街共識預期一成的漲幅，實質上已傳遞積極訊號。
最保守的7100點預測來自美銀，該行預期2026年標指每股盈利將達310美元，同時判斷市盈率將回落至22.9倍。最樂觀的8,100點預測來自投行奧本海默(Oppenheimer)，他預測每股收益為305美元，但給予26.6倍較高市盈率估值。若剔除極端預測，餘下12家機構預測區間收窄至7,400至7,800點，兼普遍預期標指每股收益將為300至320美元，市盈率維持略高於24,至25倍。
幾乎所有策略師都指出，寬鬆貨幣與財政政策將在2026年繼續支撐美國就業市場與消費支出，從而帶動整體經濟增長。除宏觀利好外，同時也認為人工智能投資與生產力提升，將推動企業盈利擴張（此趨勢或延續至2027至2028年）。除了上述主要積極因素，筆者認為貿易關稅戰進一步緩解，以及中東和烏克蘭等地緣政治局勢趨向和平發展，都可能成為金融市場情緒的額外動力。
基於上述背景支撐，我認為美股有望在明年再實現10%的健康升幅，企業總盈利亦將同步增長，估值則維持在略高於歷史平均水平。CNBC調查中，14家華爾街機構提出7,650點中位數目標，在我看來是對標普500指數2026年全年走勢非常合理的預測。
明年Q3或Q4下跌機會大
不過，2026年11月美國進入中期選舉，歷史數據指，在國會選舉的下半年表現較弱，當中第三或第四季股市屢見多次下跌。若美股延續近期強勢，在上半年觸及甚至突破7650點，指數可能在2026年最後幾個月出現回調。
整體來講，我贊同華爾街主流策略師對標普500指數積極展望及7650點的平均目標，以及預期明年可實現約10%的穩健升幅，但大部分甚至全部漲幅可能在秋季（甚至夏季）前完成。若指數在2026年底前提前突破7650點，投資者可考慮大幅減持以鎖定利潤，但目前階段仍可繼續持倉觀望。
2026 is widely expected to be anther positive year but gains maybe front loaded in 1H
As 2025 ending in 3 days, all Wall Street strategists have provided or updated their 2026 (year-end) index estimations for S&P500 index. As per CNBC survey (19 Dec 25), all 14 major strategists expect the benchmark US equity index to rise next year to between 7,100 & 8,100 point, or between 2.4% & 16.9% rise in 2026. The average & median targets are 7,629 & 7,650 respectively and implies 10% & 10.4% upside potential from Dec 26th closing level of 6,929.94.
Although 10% upside forecast equals roughly the long-term average compound growth for S&P500, it is still a good return for 2026 after three consecutive years of double-digit returns that totalled roughly 78% over 2023, 24, & 25. Of course, if you spread that one more year to include the negative 2022, S&P500 total return over last 4 years is only approximately 45%, or basically 10% per year which is in-line with its long-term compound growth of 9-10% since unofficial inception in 1926.
Conservative nature of Wall Street strategists starts the estimations with a safe number and typically upgrade if the year turns out more positive than they initially thought. In light of that nature, the 10% gain consensus is considered quite bullish already as the estimations rarely exceed that threshold before the new year. In fact, 12 months ago most forecasts are below 10% for 2025 return which now turns out to be 17.8% (as of 26 Dec). So, the 10% Wall Street consensus gain for 2026 should be regarded as quite positive already.
The least bullish 7,100 index estimation is from Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Subramanian who forecasts a relatively high EPS of US$310 for 2026 but expects a lower valuation of only 22.9x price-earnings ratio. The most bullish estimation of 8,100 comes from Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus who predicts a US$305 EPS for the index but commands a higher multiple of 26.6x PE. If take out the lowest and highest forecasts, the range is much tighter at between 7,400 & 7,800 from 12 firms that sees S&P500 to deliver US$300-320 earnings per share and to remain a slightly higher than average P/E ratio of around 24x – 25x.
Nearly all strategists cited stimulative monetary & fiscal policies to underpin US job market & consumer spending and hence broader economic growth in 2026. Besides favourable macro background, they also see AI investment & productivity gains would boost corporate earnings expansion next year (and maybe 2027). On top of these major positive factors, I also think that further improvement in trade & tariff war and easing geopolitical issues including peace progress in Middle East and Ukraine could be tailwinds for financial market sentiment.
As a result of these key solid favourable factors, I think the US stock index can deliver another year of healthy 10% gains alongside similar increase in total corporate earnings while keeping valuations in slightly higher-than-average level. The median 7,650 index target of the 14 Wall Street firms (CNBC survey) appears to be a very reasonable forecast for full-year 2026 index level estimation for the benchmark S&P500 index to me.
One minor issue to be aware is the mid-term election in November 2026 as this key Congress election year historically have weaker second half and negative drops in either / both 3Q & 4Q happened multiple times in history. Especially if US stock market extends its recent strong momentum in the first half to reach or even exceed the 7,650 median index-target, it may pullback in last few months of 2026.
In conclusion, I agreed with the positive views & the average index target of 7,650 for S&P500 by major Wall Street strategist to post a decent 10% gain in 2026 but suspect that most or all of the return may take place early before fall or even summer. If that’s the case and the index exceed 7,650 before end of 2026, investors may want to take profit by substantially reduce equity weighting. For the time being, we could hold on and ride further.
陳俊文（Norman）是一位獨立投資策略師，擁有超過30年專業投資經驗，曾在家族辦公室、銀行、精品基金公司、財富管理公司工作。在其職業生涯中，管理過多種資產，包括全球股票投資組合、多元資產投資組合、基金中的基金和可轉換債券基金。Norman對全球金融市場及多種投資資產具深入了解，包括全球股票、債券（高等級、高收益、混合、可轉換）、衍生性商品（選擇權、認股權證、掉期等）以及各類多頭和多頭產品對沖基金。他經常接受媒體採訪，並曾擔任多家大專院校專業金融課程的客座講師。
