串流媒體平台龍頭企業Netflix（NFLX），計劃收購華納兄弟探索（Warner Bros. Discovery）（WBD），但因Paramount（PSKY）敵意競購，令整單收購變得複雜，甚至可阻礙或延遲Netflix與華納的合併。
儘管華納董事會多次以買方融資風險為由，拒絕Paramount的收購建議，但其行政總裁大衛・艾里森（David Ellison）仍積極推動收購，尤其甲骨文創辦人賴瑞・艾里森（Larry Ellison）（即大衛・艾里森父親）支持下，大衛・艾里森主張以每股30美元現金收購華納整體的方案，無論在定價、現金支付、監管審批或產業效益層面，均優於Netflix的方案。
特朗普傾向支持密友艾里森家族陣營
雖然外界對Paramount收購華納後，擔心會壟斷電影市場，但更大問題是一旦Netflix完成收購，將掌握串流市場超過六成市場佔有率。特朗普政府已明確對Netflix的市佔率表示「關注」，並可能傾向支持總統密友艾里森家族陣營。
另一方面，荷里活業界亦強烈反對，擔心Netflix未來對產業從業員產生更大影響力。因此，即使獲華納董事會支持，Netflix的收購案仍可能是漫長及存有觸礁的風險。
長遠來講，由3億訂閱用戶變現優質內容資產的往績，一旦完成收購，將有助強化Netflix競爭優勢與整體盈利能力；但若交易告吹，短期反而可能刺激股價表現。特別是若華納最終選擇派拉蒙，並向Netflix支付28億美元分手費，股價有望應聲反彈，收復近期大部分失地。
收購若觸礁利反彈
除分手費收益外，Netflix還可避免交易對資產負債表的影響，畢竟此收購限制集團靈活性，甚至是720億美元或更高的收購成本帶來財務壓力，再者耗時兼耗力的政治角力和審批程序，以及潛在低於預期產生的協同效益，絶對不容忽視。
即使監管機構否決交易，導致Netflix需支付58億美元分手費，其股價仍可能因市場對融資壓力、審批耗時、執行風險等疑慮消除而得益。因此，未能成功收購華納，短期或有利股價強勁反彈，為股東帶來更大效益。
Netflix成功併購華納，雖有助長期鞏固護城河兼提升盈利，但未來12至18個月或更長時間內，交易能否獲批仍存變數，此期間股價可能承壓。投資者現階段應避免逢低買入，除非Netflix股價跌近80美元，或Paramount明顯贏得競購戰、從Netflix手中奪走華納。
Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Bros is complicated by Paramount’s keen & hostile bid
Paramount’s hostile takeover bid on Warner Brothers Discovery could stop or at least delay Netflix’s merging with WBD. Paramount’s CEO David Ellison is keen to buy Warner despite multiple rejections on WBD board’s concern about buyer financing risk. Backed by his father Larry Ellison of Oracle, David Ellison argues that his all-cash $30 per share deal on the entire WBD is better than Netflix’s plan in pricing, all-cash, regulatory approval, & industry benefit.
Although there is also some concern on Paramount’s high market-share of movie business if it takes over Warner Brothers but there is bigger antitrust concern on overall entertainment market as Netflix will have over 60% share of streaming business. Trump’s administration is clearly ‘concerned’ with Netflix’s market share and may favour the president’s friend Larry Ellison. Hollywood talent groups opposition is also severe worrying about Netflix’s future power over industry practitioners. As such, Netflix’s acquisition plan may take a long time and has a risk of falling apart in spite of WBD’s board support.
While a deal may help Netflix to increase its competitive advantages & overall profitability in the long run on its good track record of monetizing quality content asset on its vast 300-million subscribers, a break up of this plan may boost its stock price in the near term. Especially if Warner Brothers chooses Paramount instead and pay the US$2.8 billion breakup fee to Netflix, its stock price may rebound and recover a good part of its recent plummet. Besides the US$2.8 billion breakup fee, Netflix could benefit from less worry that this deal locking up its balance-sheet and flexibility to explore other growth opportunities, financial pressure from US$72 billion or higher cost, time waste on political drama getting approval, & risk of lower-than-expected synergy.
Even if the deal is rejected by regulator and Netflix will have to pay Paramount US$5.8 billion breakup fee, Netflix stock price could benefit from less market concern on its financing pressure, time spent on fighting for approval, execution risk, etc. So, failing to buy Warner Brothers may boost its stock price to rebound strongly and benefit shareholders more in the short term.
