巴郡上季斥資43億美元建倉谷歌母公司Alphabet （GOOG），此舉動震驚全球，巴郡作為投資控股公司，巴菲特也是傳奇掌門人，數十年來避開科技類股份（股神將蘋果視為消費品公司而非科技企業），尤其考慮谷歌上季股價升幅高達37%、年內回報超過50%，兼且未來12個月預期市盈率達27倍，估值不平，在納指頻創歷史新高之際，巴菲特對谷歌母公司建立重倉的決定更顯意外。
股神默許投資科技股
儘管無法確定買入科技股是「奧馬哈先知」（Oracle of Omaha）親自決策，或由即將接任行政總裁的阿貝爾（Greg Abel）、投資組合經理韋施勒（Ted Wescher）與康布斯（Todd Combs）所決定，但此大規模投資必需獲得現任行政總裁巴菲特認可，未來巴菲特雖將交棒新管理層，但仍會留任集團董事長。簡言之，無論發起決策者是誰，巴菲特在卸任行政總裁前，卻打破延續60年的投資禁忌，默許這筆科技股投資。
此舉或預示新任行政總裁阿貝爾領導下，巴郡投資風格將出現轉變，將特定「科技股」納入潛在投資目標，更刻意選在巴菲特退休前進行此操作，也許是展現投資大師對這項重大投資方針轉變的認可，相反若待明年巴菲特退休後再進行，恐怕引發更多質疑與挑戰。
若巴郡真獲准考慮投資谷歌等科技股，在新任行政總裁領導下，可能增加波動風險，卻也提升巴郡股價上升潛力。當然任何科技股都需通過多重審核標準，包括估值、增長持續性、資產負債表、商業模式與競爭力（護城河），以及各類品質要求以規避風險。這意味著並非所有「美股七雄」都能入選，例如特斯拉（TSLA）、英偉達（NVDA）等科技巨頭或仍被巴郡選擇之外。
谷歌母企有望躋身4萬億美元俱樂部
不過，巴郡投資風格轉變，將開啟更多極具吸引力與豐厚回報的投資機會，長期股東必將受益。試想一支擁有數十年經驗的頂尖投資團隊，坐擁大量現金與靈活調動空間，受半世紀最偉大投資大師加持，兼首度獲准進軍全球最強勢產業，仿如63歲的巴菲特迎來事業第二春，其發展空間無可限量！
事實上，巴郡過去9年最成功投資正是蘋果（AAPL），儘管巴菲特與芒格堅持將蘋果定義為消費品公司，以避開科技股標籤，但市場普遍認為蘋果是科技股。作為長期科技股懷疑論者，篩選科技股時必然有更苛刻要求，但當找到合適投資科技股對象時，意味會拉動該股在市場的需求。
谷歌可望從這43億美元投資中獲益，今晚（11月17日）盤前交易已應聲升5%。巴菲特這筆極罕見科技股投資，很可能輕鬆推動Alphabet突破300美元大關兼創歷史新高。既然最擅長價值投資的基金經理入市，投資者至少無需過度擔憂估值是否過高。更重要是科技與AI類股票近期回調，巴菲特卻購入AI領軍企業的舉動，將令市場重新審視科技與AI投資前景。
結合之前美國法院在反壟斷案中裁定不分拆谷歌，為Alphabet掃除重大障礙，該股有望在未來12個月內，約在每股333美元便可躋身4萬億美元市值俱樂部，投資人應考慮追隨巴菲特步伐，儘早建立或增持谷歌，以獲得長期回報。
Implications on Berkshire Hathaway and Alphabet as Warrant Buffet breaks his habit to buy tech stock before retirement
It is shocking to see Berkshire Hathaway building a new US$4.9 billion stake in Alphabet (Google parent) last quarter as the investment holding company and its legendary guru had avoided technology stocks for decades (Buffet regards Apple as consumer product company rather than a tech firm). Especially as Google has very strong gains last quarter of 37% and a big YTD return of over 50% and a not-cheap valuations of 27x next-12-months earnings, it is a big surprise to see Warren Buffet to build a sizable position at Google’s parent at a time when NASADQ was breaking all-time highs.
Although it is unsure if the Oracle of Omaha bought the tech stocks himself or that was a decision made by the upcoming CEO Greg Abel or the firm’s two major portfolio managers Ted Wescher or Todd Combs, such sizable investment would have to have Buffet’s blessing or approval now as the current although outgoing CEO who would remain as Chairman of the group. In short, regardless of the person initiating or making this decision, Warren Buffet allows this tech stock investment before he retires from the CEO post and breaks a 60-year restriction right before stepping down.
This may signal a certain level of style change of Berkshire Hathaway under the new management of incoming CEO Greg Abel that maybe including certain ‘tech stocks’ as potential investment targets. Doing so right now before Buffet’s retirement maybe intended to show the approval of the investment guru on this major shift of investment mandate. This could avoid questions and challenges on such shift if done next year after Buffet’s retirement.
If it is true that Berkshire Hathaway is now allowed to consider technology stocks like Google, this may increase upside potential of the investment holding firm under the new CEO although it may increase volatility & risk as well. Of course there would be multiple thresholds and yardsticks for any tech stocks to be considered including valuations, growth outlook sustainability, balance sheets, business model & competitiveness (moat), & various kinds of qualities to avoid unwanted risk. Which may mean not all Magnificent Seven stocks could be considered; for instance, maybe Tesla, Nvidia, & some other biggest tech stocks would still be excluded.
Nevertheless, this could open a lot more interesting and lucrative investment opportunities for Berkshire Hathaway that may benefit its shareholders in the long run. Think about it, a top investment team of decades of experience with abundant cash and flexibility on deployment, backed by the best investment guru in half century, and newly allowed to invest the world’s strongest investment theme for the first time. It is like a young 63-year-old Warren Buffet on steroid! Sky is the limit!!
In fact, Berkshire’s best & most profitable investment in the last 9 years has been Apple stock which could be regarded as tech stock by the market although Buffet and Munger chose to define it as a consumer product company to avoid the tech label. As a long-term tech stock sceptics, the firm should be most selective and demanding on picking tech stock and that would boost the investment demand of any tech stock they bought.
Google’s parent Alphabet is expected to benefit from this US$4.9 billion stake and already seeing a 5% jump in pre-market trading tonight. This extremely rare tech stock investment by Buffet could easily carries Alphabet over US$300 to new record high soon. Investors would at least worry much less if its valuations are too high as the best deep-value manager just bought some shares. Furthermore, the market would rethink about tech & AI investment outlook after recent pullback that Buffet is buying a leading AI tech share.
Together with earlier US court decision to not break-up Google on its antitrust case to remove a major overhang on Alphabet stock, the stock may even join the US$4 trillion club in 12 months with a US$333 stock price. Investors should consider following Buffet’s move to build or add investment exposure to Google soon for long-term gain.
陳俊文（Norman）是一位獨立投資策略師，擁有超過30年專業投資經驗，曾在家族辦公室、銀行、精品基金公司、財富管理公司工作。在其職業生涯中，管理過多種資產，包括全球股票投資組合、多元資產投資組合、基金中的基金和可轉換債券基金。Norman對全球金融市場及多種投資資產具深入了解，包括全球股票、債券（高等級、高收益、混合、可轉換）、衍生性商品（選擇權、認股權證、掉期等）以及各類多頭和多頭產品對沖基金。他經常接受媒體採訪，並曾擔任多家大專院校專業金融課程的客座講師。
