聯合健康2025年第三季每股盈利達2.93美元，較市場預期高7%，同時將2025全年盈利指引從原先的16美元上調至16.25美元，略高於市場預期的16.2美元。更重要是在經歷今年盈利大幅下滑後，回歸的行政總裁Hemsley，已承諾將在2026年恢復增長，並於2027年實現加快增速。儘管低收入客戶群仍面臨挑戰，但財報公布後，UNH股價在盤前交易時段急升，到週二夜盤正常交易時段升幅才收窄。
經歷兩個半月股價急升兩成後，市場對聯合健康近期發展反應顯得審慎，可能需要看到重大重組計劃取得更多進展，才能進一步推高股價。回顧曾於2006至2017年成功領導聯合健康的行政總裁Stephen Hemsley，現時集團面對醫療成本激增，兼被聯邦政府展開針對調查（源於民眾對保險業普遍不滿），以及高層遇害事件後，於2025年5月獲重新聘任，盼為聯合健康業務重整旗鼓。
值得留意是保險業面對疫情支出上升，加上聯合健康過去兩三年管理不善所影響，令公司醫療成本壓力上升，其中上季醫療損失率仍高達89.9%，雖符合預期，但仍遠高於聯合健康與行業設定的80%低標準目標。集團已積極控制成本，當中包括通過縮減Optum Health診所與醫生網絡來控制醫療支出，雖然要時間才見成效，但估計利潤率需2-3季時間將會有較大復甦。
提升利潤率與客戶數目溫和增長，預計有助聯合健康在2026年達到或超越目前市場預期每股17.59美元的目標（較今年預估每股盈利16.20美元年增約8.2%），一旦能實現此場景，將成為公司業務好轉的實證。更進一步是，若聯合健康2027年每股盈利增長能提高至超過10%，達到20美元，有望掃走市場疑慮，證明公司已從過去兩三年困境中復甦，令估值有望上移。
再者，若美國證券交易委員會下月（11月中旬）揭露巴菲特上季再度增持聯合健康，且其他知名基金經理如David Tepper同步加碼，聯合健康情緒面可進一步好轉。雖則現時無法確定巴郡部署，但推測上季有可能增持500萬股聯合健康，令其16億美元持股翻倍。若情況屬實，聯合健康有望在下月監管文件披露後續漲，投資者可考慮在股神退休前兩個月，再次跟塔順風車。
UnitedHealth gains 2% after earnings report on restructuring progress and may rise further in 12 months
UnitedHealth beats market forecast by 7% with a US$2.93 EPS in 3Q2025 and raised full-year 2025 earnings guidance to US$16.25 from previous estimation of US$16.0 and marginally higher than market forecast of US$16.20. More importantly, after a major drop in earnings this year, the returning CEO Hemsley pledges to return to growth in 2026 and to see growth accelerate in 2027 despite some challenging parts in its lower-income client. UNH stock price spiked up in early trading right after the result announcement but trade flat in normal hour trading Tuesday night.
The market is ok with recent development but may need to see more progress on this major restructuring before pushing up its stock price further after a 2.5-month 20% jump. CEO Stephen Hemsley, who have successfully led UnitedHealth between 2006 to 2017, is brought back to revamp UnitedHealth in May 2025 after the major US health insurer suffered from big jump in medical cost, a federal government investigation on its business practice related to US people complains and dissatisfaction about industry practices of the entire insurance industry, and on top of the murder of its top executive.
Along the whole industry, due to COVID related expense and other mismanagement issues past 2-3 years, UnitedHealth have experienced higher medical cost. Despite solid efforts to control cost which still need more time to work out, the firm’s medical loss ratio stayed high at 89.9% last quarter; although inline with expectation, it is much higher than the low-80% UnitedHealth and the sector target for. Although the company is on early track to control medical expense by lowering number of its Optum Health clinics and doctor network, it may take another 2-3 quarters to see bigger recovery of profit margin.
Improving profit margin and slightly higher customer number could help UnitedHealth to increase its 2026 profit to meet or exceed current average analyst forecast of US$17.59 per share for a roughly 8.2% YOY growth from the estimated EPS of US$16.20 this year. This would be solid evidence the insurer is turning around and this positive momentum may sustain to accelerate growth rate to 10% or higher in 2027 to see a US$20 EPS. That would alleviate market worry and show that it is recovering from past 2-3 years problem and should not suffer from major derating in valuations.
