把握人工智慧：增長潛力與波動風險

人工智慧主題具備絕佳的長期增長前景，但自然伴隨著階段性的短期波動與回撤風險。亞馬遜創辦人貝佐斯, 近三十年最成功的科技企業家之一，且至今仍執掌全球領先科技企業; 堅信人工智慧的增長潛力及其變革所有企業的技術能力。他坦言，雖然「很難想像，但這是真的，人工智慧提升各行各業生產力與整體品質的趨勢真實不虛」，無論是「每家製造企業、每家酒店、每家消費品公司等……」

儘管各行業接納這項新技術革命的速度不盡相同，難以預測確切時間表，但人工智慧技術將成為人類歷史上滲透最快、範圍最廣、影響面最大的技術革命。過去半世紀歷經四次重大科技革命：80年代個人電腦、90年代網際網路、2000年代移動網路，以及約2022年啟動的人工智慧革命。人工智慧將對現今及未來的所有企業、行業、國家乃至全人類產生最深刻、最廣泛且最迅速的影響。

與所有技術相同，人工智慧將取代部分勞動力並減少就業崗位，同時提升企業乃至全球經濟的生產效率。由於人工智慧的滲透速度將較過往技術變革更快，其取代人類工作的速度也可能遠超以往。因此，我主張適度放緩人工智慧發展步調，但將此宏觀議題交由經濟學家與政府處理，同時建議投資者應配置適度人工智慧投資部位，作為對自身就業與收入風險的對沖手段。

另一方面，我樂觀認為人工智慧將提升個人生產力，並通過提高總體收入或縮短工時，共同促進整體經濟福祉。但人工智慧很可能加劇人際競爭，因更多常規性工作將被取代，人類需在更高階或複雜的崗位中競逐。此外，現有及未來勞動者均需掌握人工智慧技能以保持競爭力，因在技術完全直觀化之前，操作人工智慧仍需要特定技能才能發揮更佳效能。

隨著時間推移，經濟各領域與工作崗位將逐步被人工智慧取代。首批受影響領域包括軟體工程師、工廠作業員、計程車/卡車/私家車駕駛。人形機器人將取代家政幫手、老人與兒童照護者、園丁，甚至廚師。人工智慧系統與各類機器人將接替服務生、銀行櫃員、洗碗工、店員、收銀員、物流作業員等職務。稍晚階段，人工智慧可能取代投資分析師、會計師、藥劑師、合規專員、風險管理師、保險核保人等專業崗位。

實現這些應用需消耗較當前全球運算能力高出十倍甚至百倍的計算資源，以及足以支撐數百GW級數據中心的電力供應。雖然最終其他人工智慧子領域（如軟體、應用程式與技術應用者）將受益，但由於基礎設施需求爆發式增長，人工智慧硬體設施與能源領域或持續享有卓越增長潛能。

因此，儘管股價今年（或許包括過去兩三年）已大幅攀升，多數人工智慧硬體股仍可能在未來一至兩年延續強勁漲勢。顯而易見，GPU的堅實需求將同時惠及品牌製造商英偉達與超微，以及定制設計商博通、邁威爾科技與智原。上述企業均為無晶圓廠商，依賴晶圓代工廠如上周剛公布亮眼財報的台積電。除GPU外，美光與SK海力士等記憶體供應商亦將順勢而上。最後，星座能源、Vistra、GE Vernova與Bloom Energy等人工智慧能源類股亦可望維持強勢。

這些標的本質上波動劇烈，存在顯著回撤風險與頻繁震盪，投資者需徵詢專業投資顧問以評估自身是否適合參與。投資前後，投資者須持續追蹤企業基本面、競爭格局與監管環境，並確保建立完善的風險管理機制與心理準備，以應對短期與長期的極端價格波動。的準備。

AI theme outlook is wonderful with a lot more upside potential but investors should also understand the very high near-term price volatility risk

AI Theme has fantastic long-term growth prospect but naturally comes with some near-term volatility and drawdown risk from time to time. Jeff Bezos, one of the most successful technology entrepreneurs in three decades who is still actively running world’s leading technology company, is a firm believer in AI growth potential and the tech’s ability to transform every businesses & companies. He said that while it is ‘hard to fathom, but it’s real’ that AI will boost productivity and overall quality of every business ranging from ‘Every manufacturing company, every hotel, every consumer products company, etc…

Although every industry will embrace this new technology revolution at different time rates and hence hard to predict an exact timeline, AI tech will have the fastest, broadest, & widest penetration rate among all technology revolution in human history. In the last half century, there are four biggest tech revolutions, starting from PC in the 80s, Internet in the 90s, Mobile Internet in 2,000s, & AI that started at around 2022, AI will have the biggest, widest, & fastest impact on all businesses, industries, countries, the whole world and every human being now and in the future.

Like all technologies, Artificial Intelligence will replace some human worker and reduce jobs while boosting productivity of the company or the entire world economy. As AI will penetrate faster than other technology changes in the past, it could replace human jobs much faster than before. As such, I advocate slightly slower AI development but would leave it to economist & government to handle this macro issue but suggest that investors should therefore have some AI investment exposure as a mean to hedge against this risk on their own employment and income.

On the other hand, I am hopeful AI would enhance individuals’ productivity and lead to better economic well being collectively through higher overall income or lower working hour or days. But it is likely that AI would increase competition among people as more less-complicated work or jobs will be replaced by AI and human need to compete more in more advanced or complex posts. Also, all current or future worker will need to be equipped with AI skill to stay competitive as the AI will still need some skill to operate better or more effectively before it can be completely intuitive.

In time, different parts of the economies and jobs will be replaced by Artificial Intelligence. The first few areas would be software engineers, factory workers, drivers of taxi, truck, or private car. Humanoid robots will replace domestic helpers or carers of elderly & children, gardeners, or even chefs. AI system and various robots will replace waiters, bank tellers, dish washers, shop assistants, cashiers, logistic workers, etc. Slightly later, AI could replace investment analyst, accountant, pharmacist, compliance officers, risk managers, underwriters, etc.

To achieve that, it requires an enormous computing power that could be 10 or 100 times current global computing power and the electricity to power these hundred GW levels datacentre. While eventually other AI sub-sectors such as software, application, & adopter would benefit, AI infrastructure hardware & energy sectors may continue to enjoy superb growth potential due to explosive growth in infrastructure demand.

Therefore, despite robust stock price appreciations this year and maybe last 2-3 years already, most AI hardware stocks could extend their strong rally in the next 1 year or two. Obviously, solid demand of GPU would benefit both brand GPU makers Nvidia & AMD and custom GPU designers including Broadcom, Marvell Technology, or Alchip. All above are fabless firms rely on foundries such as TSMC that just reported solid results last week. Besides GPU, memory providers such as Micron & Hynix will ride this rally too. Lastly, AI energy stocks like Constellation Energy, Vistra, GE Vernova, or Bloom Energy could remain strong too.

These stocks are also inherently highly volatile with sizable drawdown risk and fluctuations from time to time; investors need to consult investment professionals on whether they are suitable to get exposures before investment. Before and after investment, investors need to constantly monitor and understand their fundamental and competition & regulatory landscape as well as ensuring they have the appropriate risk management & preparation in place to handle the extreme price swings in both short and long terms.stors need to be patient on bargain hunting and be prepared for volatility much higher than last 3 months.