自周五晚上以來，美中貿易爭端，包括稀土出口限制、晶片與軟體制裁、貿易關稅等因素，已使全球金融市場大幅下跌。周日特朗普發文暗示他可能不會實施對中國「大幅加徵關稅」且「一切都會沒事」，市場情緒強力反彈。因此，道瓊斯與納斯達克指數反彈逾400點，收復了周五逾800點跌幅約一半。
在未來幾天或數週內，市場信心及資產價格將由兩大經濟體間的關稅與貿易訊息所左右。部分穩健的財報，或美國政府停擺解決及中東和平進展的正面消息，或能提供支撐，但焦點仍將集中於華盛頓與北京之間的談判。
今夜關稅風險與恐慌再成為焦點，特朗普威脅對中產品再加徵100%進口稅，並限制關鍵軟體出口，作為中國稀土出口限制的報復措施。周五這則消息加劇市場恐慌，並重挫全球金融市場，道指與納指大跌逾800點，標普500指數下跌2.7%，歐洲主要指數亦大幅下滑。10年期美國公債殖利率因成長擔憂滑落至4.05%，而黃金因避險需求上漲。加密貨幣受風險偏好轉低影響下挫2%至5.5%，油價亦隨之下跌。
中國在貿易談判中已堅持數週，試圖迫使美方達成全面協議，以避免白宮的狡猾突襲。這種惡化且緊張的關係已醞釀數週，且雙方因誤解使局勢更為惡化。過去六個月談判進展有限，一些「策略性」不利於信任建立。缺乏或低度的信任讓貿易討論格外困難，並導致近來的誤會。
暫時華盛頓似乎已更清楚了解中國稀土出口限制的細節與原因，態度較不敵對，但中國仍對美方及其達成並遵守整體貿易協議的意願持懷疑態度。這種信任缺失意味著真正的長期全面貿易協議幾乎不可能達成。雙方恐只能達成短期或中期的解決方案，暫時將問題延後。
如此棘手且多變的關係，意味著即使是短期解決方案也需數週方能達成，且雙方言詞可能轉為尖銳，進一步損害市場情緒。全球金融市場，包括股票、債券、黃金、貨幣等，將在未達成至少短期或中期協議前的數週內，隨消息走勢波動。投資人須耐心尋找逢低吸納機會，並做好比過去三個月更高波動性的準備。
US-China trade dispute may change sharply again next few weeks and dictate market sentiment & direction
While AMD jumps 25%+ tonight and may gain another 40% in the next 12 months and appear to be the Since Friday night, US-China trade dispute including rare-earth export restriction, chip & software sanction, trade tariffs have been plummeting financial markets globally. Sentiment rebounded strongly after Trump’s Sunday post suggesting he may not actually implement the ‘massive increase of tariffs’ on China and that ‘it will all be fine’. As a result, Dow Jones & NASDAQ indexes rebound 400+ to recover roughly half its Friday’s 800+ loss. In the next few days or weeks, market confidence and asset prices will be dictated by tariff & trade news between the two biggest economies. Some solid earnings reports or positive news on US government shutdown and the peace progress in Middle East may provide some support but the focus will be on talks between Washington and Beijing.
Tariff risk & fear are back in focus tonight as Trump threatens to impose 100% additional import tax to Chinese products and restrict critical software export as retaliation measure to Chinese rare-earth export tightening. This news on a Friday exacerbates panic reaction and plunges global financial markets leading by a big 800+ points plunge of Dow Jones & NASDAQ, S&P500 lost 2.7% along with big declines of major European indexes. 10-year US govt bond yield slides to 4.05% on growth worry while gold rise on safe-haven demand. Crypto currencies are off 2%-5.5% on risk off sentiment and so do oil prices tonight.
China has been tough on trade negotiation for weeks trying to force US to an all-round comprehensive deal to avoid any ambush from the cunning White House. This worsening & straining relationship has been brewing for weeks and caused some misunderstanding from both sides to make things worse. During the past 6 months, negotiations have limited progress and some ‘tactics’ are not helping on trust building. Such low or lack of trust is making the trade discussion difficult and lead to recent misunderstanding.
Washington seems to have clarified the details and rationales of China’s rare-earth export restriction better now and turning less hostile but China is still sceptical on US and its willingness to strike and comply to an overall trade deal. This lack of trust means a true long-term overall trade agreement would be nearly impossible. Instead, the two sides may only be able to reach some short or mid-term fixes and kick the problem down the road for now.
