AMD與ChatGPT母企OpenAI建立策略夥伴關係。消息一出，AMD當晚股價飆升超過25%，且未來12個月內可能再漲40%。這筆龐大交易或將成為CEO如何利用公司資本支出需求，免費獲得頂尖硬體設備的經典案例！若計劃如期進行，Sam Altman可能憑空創造出1000億美元的價值。
今次交易包括AMD向OpenAI發行長期股票認購權證，以每股0.01美元價格「購買」最高達1.6億股AMD股票，約為現有16億股流通股的10%。當然，此權證的行使條件是OpenAI分階段從AMD購買高達6GW的數據中心GPU，且AMD股價在幾年內達到600美元。如果未來幾年完成約800億至1000億美元的6GW GPU採購目標，AMD的市場佔比將從目前的4.5%躍升至明年超過10%，並在幾年後達到15%。
此計劃可能使AMD未來五年的獲利預期翻倍，並在2030年前將每股盈餘提高至20美元。屆時，AMD股價可能攀升至600美元以上，讓OpenAI執行其所有長期認購權證，以持有AMD 10%股權，屆時AMD市值將達1兆美元。這部分持股將價值約1000億美元，抵銷OpenAI向AMD支付的800億至1000億美元。
雖然計劃仍有變數，難以斷言一定能完美實現，但成功機率相當可觀，且可讓OpenAI從大規模資本支出中獲取最多1000億美元利潤。執行長Altman深知AMD獲得此合約的重要性以及對AMD股價的長期正面影響，並利用這點安排這筆龐大交易，對OpenAI有利。OpenAI無論如何都需要投入數百億美元資本支出，卻成功利用這筆合約迫使AMD給予價值數年後可能高達1000億美元的巨額股票選擇權。
交易結構設計對OpenAI和AMD雙方都有利，因為可能推動AMD股價及市值進一步攀升。樂觀預期下，五年內總市值甚至可望翻三倍。一天內25%大漲或五年內市值翻四倍，皆足以支持AMD以10%股權換取如此大規模長期成長。
AMD從此交易中，營收、獲利與股價都有機會翻倍甚至三倍成長。
在6GW GPU訂單裡，首批1GW會在2026年下半年部署。這1GW訂單需約70萬片MI-355X（單片功耗1.4kW）；按每片折扣價2萬美元（官方價2.5萬美元）計算，AMD 2026年GPU銷售額將達140億美元。假設淨利率50%，將產生70億美元淨利，對應每股盈餘可增加4.3美元。此前市場對AMD 2026年EPS平均預估為6.04美元，此交易或助其飆升至10美元。若如此，AMD股價可達300美元（市盈率30倍），比目前210美元高出43%。
整體6GW訂單在五至六年內總銷售額約為800億至1000億美元，將成為AMD晶片能力的重大背書，直接或間接推升其營收與獲利。若AMD成功交付6GW數據中心GPU，市佔率將從現有4%提升至12%以上，市值將自3340億美元躍升至2030年的1兆美元。在此情況下，OpenAI持有的10%股權將價值1000億美元，是相當值得的交易。步上揚。12個月，其股價容易達到210美元，相當於2026年每股盈利的35倍。在明年銷售額成長率維持在30%以上的多頭情況下，其本益比可能達到40倍，即240美元。
An epic deal shows how OpenAI CEO can create US$100 billion value from its capex plan
While AMD jumps 25%+ tonight and may gain another 40% in the next 12 months and appear to be the biggest winner in US stock market tonight, this mega deal may become the textbook case of how a CEO can leverage its firm’s capital expenditure need to get top-notch hardware equipment free of charge! If this plays out as per the plan, Sam Altman may have created US$100 billion out of thin air.
How OpenAI could gain US$100 billion to pay for that 6GW GPU
The AMD-OpenAI deal includes AMD issuing long-term stock warrant to OpenAI to ‘buy’ at US$0.01 only of up to 160 million AMD stocks, or 10% of its current outstanding 1.6 billion shares. Of course, it is subject to OpenAI buying as much as 6GW datacentre GPUs from AMD in stages and AMD stock price hitting US$600 within a few years. If the first threshold of buying 6GW of GPUs, roughly US$80-$100 billion total sales, over the next few years is done, AMD could see its market share jumps from 4.5% now to 10%+ next year and may reach 15% a few years later.
That may double AMD’s earnings forecast in next 5 years and possibly boost its EPS to US$20 by 2030. By then, AMD stock may climb above US$600 to allow OpenAI to vet all its long-term call option and own 10% of AMD with a total market cap of US$1 trillion. That holding would then worth US$100 billion for OpenAI and offset the US$80-$100 billion payment to AMD.
It is too early to conclude that this plan would work perfectly as there are a few moving parts but there is a reasonable chance to success and allow OpenAI to make a maximum of US$100 billion profit from its big capex plan. CEO Altman understands the importance for AMD to get this contract and the long-term positive implication on AMD stock price and make use of this to arrange this mega deal to benefit his firm. OpenAI needs to do this billion US$ capital expenditure anyway but successfully make use of this mega contract to force AMD to give them a big stock option that may worth US$100 billion in a few years.
The deal is structured in a way that mutually benefits OpenAI and AMD as it would likely boost AMD stock price and total valuations (market capitalization) like the 25% leap tonight and maybe even bigger gain of another 43% in the next 12 months. Or, in the bull case, triple its total value in 5 years. For a one-day 25% jump or quadrupling in 5 years, it justifies AMD giving 10% of itself if such huge long-term huge growth takes place.
